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23-Feb-2020 14:10

Then it doesn’t even matter whether anyone believes you or not, the rumor is still out there. In a psychiatric hospital I used to work in (not the one I currently work in) during my brief time there there were two different accusations of rape by staff members against patients…

I want to take a second out to say very emphatically that all accusations of rape by psychiatric patients should be taken very seriously.

I’m not really complaining – missing the mark by only a little over four orders of magnitude is actually not bad for a “story” of this type.

Nevertheless, it will be instructive to figure out where they erred so we may be vigilant against such things in the future, and perhaps certain moral lessons may be gleaned in the process as well. Since that article itself does not show its work, we will have to rely on its obvious inspiration, an almost-identical blog post written a few days before by the same person responsible for the Buzzfeed piece, Charles Clymer.

Divide 5.1 billion by 6,750, and therefore, in Clymer’s words “the odds of any sexually-active male between the ages of 15 and 39 has a 750,000 to 1 chance of being falsely accused of rape” And, he goes on to say, 1/33 men are raped during their lifetime.

Therefore, the average man has a 27500x higher chance of being raped than being falsely accused of rape.

The research community defines false accusations as those that can be proven false beyond a reasonable doubt, and all others as true.

Yet many – maybe most – false accusations are not provably false and so will not be included.

We will examine these numbers later, but for now let’s just take them as given.

Yes, psychiatric patients sometimes have complicated cognitive or personality issues that make them more likely to falsely report rape, but for exactly this reason they are much more vulnerable and people are much more likely to take advantage of them.

This is a known problem and you should never dismiss their complaint.

Or do you walk to the other side of the quad and bring it up to your school administrator, who has just declared to the national news that she thinks all men accused of rape should be automatically expelled from the college, without any investigation, regardless of whether there is any evidence? I took it very very seriously, investigated as best I could, and eventually became extremely confident that the accusation was false. Yes, that leaves you a lot of room to accuse me of lying if you want.

Or if even the school administrator isn’t guilty-until-proven-innocent enough for you, why not just go to a bunch of your friends, tell them your ex-boyfriend raped you, and trust them to spread the accusation all over your community? But if my word isn’t good enough for you, I happen to have witnessed two more cases of false rape accusations where I can tell you some minimal details.

Some people have been linking this article claiming it says things it DEFINITELY DOES NOT, so please read it before you have an opinion.] (see also parts 1, 2, 3, and 4 of ∞) I.

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