Had been dating


26-May-2020 12:18

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The committee concluded that strong growth in both real GDP and real GDI in the fourth quarter of 2009 ruled out the possibility that the trough occurred later than the third quarter.The committee designated June as the month of the trough based on several monthly indicators.Apart from a random statistical discrepancy, real GDI satisfies that equality while real personal income does not.The committee also maintains a quarterly chronology of business cycle peak and trough dates.Identifying the date of the trough involved weighing the behavior of various indicators of economic activity.The estimates of real GDP and GDI issued by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of the U. Department of Commerce are only available quarterly.Further, macroeconomic indicators are subject to substantial revisions and measurement error.

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Movements in these series can provide useful additional information when the broader measures are ambiguous about the date of the monthly peak or trough.The committee believes that these quarterly measures of the real volume of output across the entire economy are the most reliable measures of economic activity.Second, in previous business cycles, aggregate hours and employment have frequently reached their troughs later than the NBER's trough date.There were two reasons for selecting the earlier date.

The first was described above -- the fact that quarterly real GDP and GDI rose strongly in the fourth quarter.

In both the 2001- cycles, household employment also reached its trough later than the NBER trough date.



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